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Sutjeska vs Mladost DG Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Sutjeska

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDW

5 – 1

FULL TIME

Mladost DG

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.7%0-24.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.7%1-112.0%1-26.7%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.4%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.4%3-14.9%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 58.8% 1.70 -23.8%

Draw 25.9% 32.3% 3.10 -11.8%

Away win 29.3% 21.7% 4.60 +20.9%

Over 2.5 51.6% 46.5% 2.15 +10.9%

Over 3.5 30.9% 28.6% 3.50 +8.2%

BTTS 54.1% 54.1% 1.85 +0.1%

Home O1.5 46.1% 53.2% 1.88 -13.3%

Away O1.5 33.0% 23.3% 4.30 +41.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -55.0%

Bet Hit 23%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.1%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sutjeska1.6

Mladost DG1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SUTJESKA · PPG 1.43

MLADOST DG · PPG 1.01

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sutjeska (H) 44.8%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -23.8%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.8%

Mladost DG (A) 29.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sutjeska face Mladost DG in Montenegro - First League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sutjeska a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Mladost DG 29%, so Sutjeska are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sutjeska and 1.1 for Mladost DG (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sutjeska are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.01 for Mladost DG. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +41.9%. This match finished 5-1.

Sutjeska vs Mladost DG Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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