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Dečić vs Bokelj Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 18:00

Dečić

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Bokelj

PPG 1.51 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.6%0-112.5%0-24.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.8%1-112.6%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.5%2-16.4%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.2%3-12.1%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.7% 71.4% 1.40 -41.6%

Draw 34.1% 27.8% 3.60 +22.8%

Away win 24.2% 13.3% 7.50 +48.9%

Over 2.5 34.5% 40.0% 2.50 -13.8%

Over 3.5 17.4% 22.5% 4.45 -13.5%

BTTS 43.6% 38.5% 2.60 +13.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 54.3% 1.84 -43.7%

Away O1.5 17.9% 13.0% 7.70 +22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -55.0%

Bet Hit 23%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.6%

H 42% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.6%

#2 1–0✓ 18.8%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–1 12.5%

#5 2–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dečić1.0

Bokelj0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 17.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEČIĆ · PPG 1.54

BOKELJ · PPG 1.51

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.34, combined xG 1.68 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dečić (H) 41.7%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -41.6%

Draw 34.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +22.8%

Bokelj (A) 24.2%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +48.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dečić face Bokelj in Montenegro - First League on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dečić a 42% chance, the draw 34% and Bokelj 24%, so Dečić are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Dečić and 0.7 for Bokelj (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dečić are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.51 for Bokelj. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Dečić vs Bokelj Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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