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Jezero vs Sutjeska Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:00

Jezero

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Sutjeska

PPG 1.37 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-19.3%0-24.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.0%1-112.7%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.6%2-18.8%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.4%3-14.0%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 29.4% 3.40 +63.2%

Draw 27.2% 34.5% 2.90 -12.7%

Away win 24.8% 48.8% 2.05 -29.5%

Over 2.5 44.8% 42.6% 2.35 +5.3%

Over 3.5 26.5% 24.4% 4.10 +5.2%

BTTS 49.1% 51.3% 1.95 -4.3%

Home O1.5 37.8% 27.5% 3.64 +37.6%

Away O1.5 23.2% 44.1% 2.27 -28.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -55.0%

Bet Hit 23%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.1%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 0–0✓ 10.2%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jezero1.4

Sutjeska0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JEZERO · PPG 1.61

SUTJESKA · PPG 1.37

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 2.28 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jezero (H) 48.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +63.2%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.7%

Sutjeska (A) 24.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -29.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jezero face Sutjeska in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jezero a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Sutjeska 25%, so Jezero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Jezero and 0.9 for Sutjeska (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jezero are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.37 for Sutjeska. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +37.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Jezero vs Sutjeska Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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