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Mladost DG vs Petrovac Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:00

Mladost DG

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Petrovac

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.1%0-25.6%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.1%1-112.5%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.9%2-18.6%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.2%3-13.9%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 29.4% 3.40 +31.6%

Draw 26.6% 35.7% 2.80 -15.3%

Away win 34.8% 47.6% 2.10 -26.9%

Over 2.5 50.8% 42.6% 2.35 +19.4%

Over 3.5 30.9% 23.3% 4.30 +32.9%

BTTS 54.7% 51.3% 1.95 +6.7%

Home O1.5 37.8% 27.9% 3.58 +35.3%

Away O1.5 37.3% 41.7% 2.40 -10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -55.0%

Bet Hit 23%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 0–0✓ 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mladost DG1.4

Petrovac1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MLADOST DG · PPG 1.50

PETROVAC · PPG 1.21

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mladost DG (H) 38.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +31.6%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.3%

Petrovac (A) 34.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -26.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mladost DG face Petrovac in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mladost DG a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Petrovac 35%, so Mladost DG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Mladost DG and 1.2 for Petrovac (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mladost DG are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.21 for Petrovac. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +35.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Mladost DG vs Petrovac Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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