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Jezero vs Mornar Bar Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 36 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 18:00

Jezero

PPG 1.41 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Mornar Bar

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-114.6%0-28.7%0-33.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.2%1-113.3%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.1%2-16.0%2-23.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.5%3-11.8%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.1% 38.2% 2.62 -14.2%

Draw 30.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.8%

Away win 40.6% 41.7% 2.40 -2.6%

Over 2.5 46.2% 42.0% 2.38 +10.0%

Over 3.5 16.0% 21.7% 4.60 -15.8%

BTTS 48.8% 51.3% 1.95 -4.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.8%

A 41% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 12.4%

#3 0–1 14.6%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 0–2✓ 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jezero0.9

Mornar Bar1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JEZERO · PPG 1.41

MORNAR BAR · PPG 1.59

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.41), Away GOOD (1.59)

Win probability 1X2

Jezero (H) 29.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -14.2%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.8%

Mornar Bar (A) 40.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jezero face Mornar Bar in Montenegro - First League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jezero a 29% chance, the draw 30% and Mornar Bar 41%, so Mornar Bar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Jezero and 1.2 for Mornar Bar (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jezero are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.59 for Mornar Bar. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Jezero vs Mornar Bar Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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