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Sutjeska vs Jedinstvo Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 36 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 18:00

Sutjeska

PPG 2.41 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Jedinstvo

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+19.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-14.6%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.5%1-19.2%1-22.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-19.1%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.5%3-16.0%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-14.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.2% 51.3% 1.95 +19.3%

Draw 22.9% 32.3% 3.10 -17.4%

Away win 15.9% 30.3% 3.30 -28.5%

Over 2.5 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Over 3.5 26.7% 32.5% 3.08 -10.7%

BTTS 48.6% 57.8% 1.73 -15.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.6%

H 61% / xG 2.0-0.6 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.4%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 1–1 9.2%

#4 3–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sutjeska2.0

Jedinstvo0.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SUTJESKA · PPG 2.41

JEDINSTVO · PPG 0.71

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.41) vs P(Home)=61.2%

Win probability 1X2

Sutjeska (H) 61.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +19.3%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.4%

Jedinstvo (A) 15.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sutjeska face Jedinstvo in Montenegro - First League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sutjeska a 61% chance, the draw 23% and Jedinstvo 16%, so Sutjeska are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Sutjeska and 0.6 for Jedinstvo (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sutjeska are averaging 2.41 points per game versus 0.71 for Jedinstvo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.3%. This match finished 1-3.

Sutjeska vs Jedinstvo Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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