Serie A
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
Upcoming Serie A predictions
DateMatchPickProbOddsEV
4 SEPT18:45 Genoa vs Como — NO PICK — — —// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 74 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
47.3%
1X2
35/74
55.4%
O/U 2.5
41/74
48.6%
BTTS
36/74
56.8%
Exact score
42/74
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
14
Settled
35.7%
Hit rate
5/14
1.95
Avg odds
-36.2%
ROI
-5.1u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=7 28.6% HIT · AVG 1.97 · -43.6% ROI
HOME WIN · N=4 50.0% HIT · AVG 2.03 · -13.3% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.78 · -49.7% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
7
Bets
29%
Hit
-41.4%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
6
Bets
50%
Hit
-19.5%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 8 PICKS · 4 HIT · 4 MISS
31 AUG Lecce vs AS Roma — NO PICK 0–4 —31 AUG Atalanta vs Bologna — NO PICK 1–0 —30 AUG Napoli vs Como — NO PICK 1–2 —30 AUG Cagliari vs Inter Over 2.5 -9% 0–1 MISS30 AUG Lazio vs Genoa — NO PICK 1–0 —29 AUG Sassuolo vs Torino BTTS -12% 2–1 HIT29 AUG Juventus vs Parma — NO PICK 2–0 —24 AUG Bologna vs Lazio — NO PICK 0–1 —24 AUG AS Roma vs Fiorentina BTTS +1% 4–0 MISS23 AUG Atalanta vs Sassuolo BTTS -7% 2–1 HIT23 AUG Torino vs AC Milan BTTS -4% 1–2 HIT22 AUG Udinese vs Como BTTS +3% 1–1 HIT22 AUG Genoa vs Napoli BTTS +6% 0–2 MISS22 AUG Parma vs Cagliari BTTS +1% 0–1 MISSMay 2026 // 0 PICKS · 0 HIT · 0 MISS
24 MAY Parma vs Sassuolo — NO PICK 1–0 —