Serie A

ITALY · 61 MATCHES TRACKED · 13 APR 2026 – 24 MAY 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 60 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

41.7%

1X2

25/60

55.0%

O/U 2.5

33/60

46.7%

BTTS

28/60

53.3%

Exact score

32/60

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

43.9%

Hit rate

18/41

1.66

Avg odds

-32.5%

ROI

-13.3u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=17 23.5% HIT · AVG 1.84 · -56.4% ROI

HOME WIN · N=15 53.3% HIT · AVG 1.53 · -21.6% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=9 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.53 · -5.6% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

60%

Hit

-18.6%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

25%

Hit

-46.3%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

45%

Hit

-30.8%

ROI

Match log

60 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 10 PICKS · 6 HIT · 4 MISS

24 MAY Parma vs Sassuolo — NO PICK 1–0 —24 MAY Napoli vs Udinese BTTS +1% 1–0 MISS 24 MAY Hellas Verona vs AS Roma Away -25% 0–2 HIT 24 MAY Cremonese vs Como Away -10% 1–4 HIT 24 MAY AC Milan vs Cagliari Home -33% 1–2 MISS 24 MAY Lecce vs Genoa — NO PICK 1–0 —24 MAY Torino vs Juventus BTTS -2% 2–2 HIT 23 MAY Bologna vs Inter Milan Away +15% 3–3 MISS 23 MAY Lazio vs Pisa Home -19% 2–1 HIT 22 MAY Fiorentina vs Atalanta — NO PICK 1–1 —17 MAY AS Roma vs Lazio — NO PICK 2–0 —17 MAY Pisa vs Napoli Away -22% 0–3 HIT 17 MAY Juventus vs Fiorentina Home -30% 0–2 MISS 17 MAY Genoa vs AC Milan — NO PICK 1–2 —17 MAY Como vs Parma Home -31% 1–0 HIT