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Lazio vs Genoa Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:45

Lazio

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Genoa

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-19.6%0-25.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.4%1-112.9%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.4%2-18.7%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.8%3-13.9%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 48.8% 2.05 -11.0%

Draw 31.2% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

Away win 25.3% 25.0% 4.00 +0.7%

Over 2.5 44.8% 42.0% 2.38 +6.6%

Over 3.5 26.3% 22.2% 4.50 +11.0%

BTTS 47.2% 50.0% 2.00 -5.6%

Home O1.5 37.9% 44.4% 2.25 -14.7%

Away O1.5 32.6% 25.0% 4.00 +30.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.2%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 1–0✓ 12.4%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lazio1.3

Genoa1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LAZIO · PPG 1.55

GENOA · PPG 1.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lazio (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -11.0%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.4%

Genoa (A) 25.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lazio face Genoa in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lazio a 43% chance, the draw 31% and Genoa 25%, so Lazio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Lazio and 1.0 for Genoa (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lazio are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.17 for Genoa. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +30.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Lazio vs Genoa Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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