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Parma vs Sassuolo Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 38 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 13:00

Parma

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Sassuolo

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-114.8%0-28.4%0-33.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.8%1-113.4%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.3%2-16.0%2-23.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.6%3-11.8%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% 37.9% 2.64 -19.2%

Draw 31.2% 29.9% 3.35 +4.5%

Away win 38.2% 39.1% 2.56 -2.2%

Over 2.5 46.2% 54.1% 1.85 -14.5%

Over 3.5 15.0% 32.3% 3.10 -32.1%

BTTS 48.6% 59.9% 1.67 -18.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.6%

D 31% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 0–1 14.8%

#4 1–0✓ 11.8%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Parma0.9

Sassuolo1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PARMA · PPG 1.00

SASSUOLO · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

49%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Parma (H) 30.6%

ODDS 2.64 · IMPLIED 37.9% EV -19.2%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +4.5%

Sassuolo (A) 38.2%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Parma face Sassuolo in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Parma a 31% chance, the draw 31% and Sassuolo 38%, so Sassuolo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Parma and 1.1 for Sassuolo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Parma are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.11 for Sassuolo. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Parma vs Sassuolo Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie A Predictions