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Parma vs Cagliari Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:45

Parma

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Cagliari

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-111.5%0-26.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.8%1-113.4%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.4%2-17.8%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.9%3-13.0%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 40.3% 2.48 +0.2%

Draw 29.2% 32.8% 3.05 -6.6%

Away win 30.4% 34.0% 2.94 -10.6%

Over 2.5 44.8% 41.7% 2.40 +7.5%

Over 3.5 25.9% 22.2% 4.50 +9.9%

BTTS 50.4% 50.0% 2.00 +0.8%

Home O1.5 31.2% 36.4% 2.75 -14.2%

Away O1.5 32.8% 32.3% 3.10 +1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.4%

H 40% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 11.0%

#4 0–1✓ 11.5%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Parma1.2

Cagliari1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PARMA · PPG 1.25

CAGLIARI · PPG 1.14

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.11, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Parma (H) 40.4%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +0.2%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -6.6%

Cagliari (A) 30.4%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Parma face Cagliari in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Parma a 40% chance, the draw 29% and Cagliari 30%, so Parma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Parma and 1.0 for Cagliari (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Parma are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.14 for Cagliari. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Parma vs Cagliari Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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