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Sassuolo vs Torino Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:30

Sassuolo

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Torino

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-19.4%0-25.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.6%1-112.8%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.9%2-18.7%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.6%3-14.0%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 45.0% 2.22 -5.2%

Draw 27.6% 30.8% 3.25 -6.2%

Away win 29.7% 31.3% 3.20 -3.0%

Over 2.5 45.8% 50.0% 2.00 -8.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.0% 3.45 -0.6%

BTTS 50.1% 57.1% 1.75 -12.3%

Home O1.5 38.0% 45.5% 2.20 -16.4%

Away O1.5 33.0% 35.7% 2.80 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 17%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.1%

H 43% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 2–1✓ 8.7%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sassuolo1.4

Torino1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SASSUOLO · PPG 1.52

TORINO · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.27, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sassuolo (H) 42.7%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -5.2%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.2%

Torino (A) 29.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sassuolo face Torino in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sassuolo a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Torino 30%, so Sassuolo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sassuolo and 1.1 for Torino (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sassuolo are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.10 for Torino. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Sassuolo vs Torino Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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