Today / Italy - Serie A / Juventus vs Parma

Juventus vs Parma Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:45

Juventus

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Parma

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-19.5%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.6%1-112.8%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-18.7%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.2%3-13.9%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 81.3% 1.23 -45.4%

Draw 31.9% 16.7% 6.00 +91.4%

Away win 23.7% 9.1% 11.00 +96.4%

Over 2.5 43.1% 60.6% 1.65 -28.9%

Over 3.5 25.6% 37.0% 2.70 -18.5%

BTTS 47.2% 43.5% 2.30 +8.6%

Home O1.5 38.0% 74.1% 1.35 -48.7%

Away O1.5 25.7% 14.3% 7.00 +47.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 44% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 1–0 13.6%

#4 2–0✓ 9.2%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventus1.4

Parma0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUS · PPG 1.79

PARMA · PPG 1.34

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Juventus (H) 44.4%

ODDS 1.23 · IMPLIED 81.3% EV -45.4%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +91.4%

Parma (A) 23.7%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +96.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventus face Parma in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventus a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Parma 24%, so Juventus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Juventus and 0.9 for Parma (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventus are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.34 for Parma. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +109.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Juventus vs Parma Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie A Predictions