Today / Italy - Serie A / Udinese vs Como

Udinese vs Como Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:30

Udinese

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Como

PPG 1.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-112.7%0-28.6%0-33.9%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.5%1-112.9%1-28.7%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-04.8%2-16.5%2-24.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.6%3-12.2%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 22.7% 4.40 +35.5%

Draw 26.4% 29.0% 3.45 -5.3%

Away win 42.8% 55.2% 1.81 -22.5%

Over 2.5 50.1% 47.6% 2.10 +5.2%

Over 3.5 28.1% 26.0% 3.85 +4.9%

BTTS 53.0% 51.3% 1.95 +3.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 26.0% 3.85 +17.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 50.0% 2.00 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.0%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.4 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.9%

#2 0–1 12.7%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Udinese1.0

Como1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

UDINESE · PPG 1.31

COMO · PPG 1.72

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.34, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Udinese (H) 30.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +35.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -5.3%

Como (A) 42.8%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -22.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Udinese face Como in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Udinese a 31% chance, the draw 26% and Como 43%, so Como are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Udinese and 1.4 for Como (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Udinese are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.72 for Como. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +22.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Udinese vs Como Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie A Predictions