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Genoa vs Como Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 3 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:45

Genoa

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

UPCOMING

Como

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-111.9%0-28.0%0-33.6%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.5%1-112.8%1-28.7%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.1%2-16.9%2-24.7%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.8%3-12.5%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.4% 20.4% 4.90 +26.4%

Draw 27.4% 31.3% 3.20 -7.4%

Away win 43.1% 55.6% 1.80 -22.4%

Over 2.5 49.0% 44.4% 2.25 +10.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +12.3%

BTTS 49.9% 48.8% 2.05 +2.3%

Home O1.5 30.8% 23.1% 4.33 +33.4%

Away O1.5 42.2% 47.6% 2.10 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 17%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob49.9%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–1 11.9%

#3 0–0 8.8%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Genoa1.1

Como1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GENOA · PPG 1.07

COMO · PPG 1.80

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.27, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Genoa (H) 29.4%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +26.4%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.4%

Como (A) 43.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Genoa face Como in Italy - Serie A on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Genoa a 29% chance, the draw 27% and Como 43%, so Como are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Genoa and 1.4 for Como (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Genoa are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.80 for Como. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +33.4%.

Genoa vs Como Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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