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Bologna vs Lazio Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 16:30

Bologna

PPG 1.28 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Lazio

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-111.3%0-25.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.0%1-113.3%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.7%2-17.9%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.0%3-13.1%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 46.5% 2.15 -11.4%

Draw 28.3% 32.3% 3.10 -7.4%

Away win 30.5% 28.6% 3.50 +6.8%

Over 2.5 44.8% 45.5% 2.20 -1.4%

Over 3.5 25.9% 25.0% 4.00 +2.2%

BTTS 50.5% 52.4% 1.91 -3.5%

Home O1.5 32.0% 44.4% 2.25 -28.0%

Away O1.5 32.6% 29.4% 3.40 +10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.5%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 0–0 11.0%

#4 0–1✓ 11.3%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bologna1.2

Lazio1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLOGNA · PPG 1.28

LAZIO · PPG 1.34

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.16, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bologna (H) 41.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -11.4%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.4%

Lazio (A) 30.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bologna face Lazio in Italy - Serie A on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bologna a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Lazio 31%, so Bologna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bologna and 1.0 for Lazio (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bologna are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.34 for Lazio. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Bologna vs Lazio Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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