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Genoa vs Napoli Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:45

Genoa

PPG 1.28 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Napoli

PPG 1.66 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-111.6%0-27.7%0-33.4%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.4%2-17.1%2-24.7%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.0%3-12.6%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.1% 21.7% 4.60 +47.7%

Draw 26.6% 30.3% 3.30 -7.3%

Away win 41.3% 54.9% 1.82 -24.8%

Over 2.5 50.2% 45.5% 2.20 +10.4%

Over 3.5 28.4% 23.8% 4.20 +11.6%

BTTS 53.0% 50.0% 2.00 +6.0%

Home O1.5 30.6% 25.0% 4.00 +22.4%

Away O1.5 41.2% 48.8% 2.05 -15.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.0%

A 41% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1 11.6%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 1–2 8.6%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Genoa1.1

Napoli1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GENOA · PPG 1.28

NAPOLI · PPG 1.66

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.22, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Genoa (H) 32.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +47.7%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.3%

Napoli (A) 41.3%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Genoa face Napoli in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Genoa a 32% chance, the draw 27% and Napoli 41%, so Napoli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Genoa and 1.3 for Napoli (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Genoa are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.66 for Napoli. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +40.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Genoa vs Napoli Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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