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Atalanta vs Sassuolo Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:45

Atalanta

PPG 1.66 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sassuolo

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-18.8%0-24.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.0%1-112.6%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.0%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.5%3-14.3%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 66.7% 1.50 -29.0%

Draw 26.7% 25.0% 4.00 +4.1%

Away win 26.0% 17.2% 5.80 +30.5%

Over 2.5 50.1% 57.8% 1.73 -13.3%

Over 3.5 28.2% 36.4% 2.75 -13.5%

BTTS 53.0% 57.1% 1.75 -7.2%

Home O1.5 40.0% 63.7% 1.57 -37.2%

Away O1.5 26.5% 25.0% 4.00 +3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 47% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 0–0 9.1%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atalanta1.4

Sassuolo1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ATALANTA · PPG 1.66

SASSUOLO · PPG 1.21

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atalanta (H) 47.3%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -29.0%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +4.1%

Sassuolo (A) 26.0%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +30.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atalanta face Sassuolo in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atalanta a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Sassuolo 26%, so Atalanta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Atalanta and 1.0 for Sassuolo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atalanta are averaging 1.66 points per game versus 1.21 for Sassuolo. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +34.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Atalanta vs Sassuolo Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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