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Napoli vs Como Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:30

Napoli

PPG 1.99 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Como

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-19.9%0-25.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.7%1-112.9%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.7%2-18.5%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.4%3-13.7%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% 40.0% 2.50 +1.5%

Draw 31.1% 34.5% 2.90 -9.8%

Away win 28.3% 33.3% 3.00 -9.1%

Over 2.5 44.8% 43.5% 2.30 +3.0%

Over 3.5 27.2% 23.1% 4.33 +10.7%

BTTS 49.2% 52.4% 1.91 -6.0%

Home O1.5 37.2% 38.2% 2.62 -2.5%

Away O1.5 33.0% 30.8% 3.25 +7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.2%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Napoli1.3

Como1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NAPOLI · PPG 1.99

COMO · PPG 1.60

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.21, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Napoli (H) 40.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +1.5%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.8%

Como (A) 28.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Napoli face Como in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Napoli a 41% chance, the draw 31% and Como 28%, so Napoli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Napoli and 1.1 for Como (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Napoli are averaging 1.99 points per game versus 1.60 for Como. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Napoli vs Como Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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