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Cagliari vs Inter Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:45

Cagliari

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Inter

PPG 1.96 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-110.7%0-27.1%0-33.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.6%1-112.7%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.7%2-17.6%2-25.0%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.3%3-13.0%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.6% 14.3% 7.00 +128.2%

Draw 28.4% 23.8% 4.20 +11.6%

Away win 39.0% 69.4% 1.44 -43.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 31.3% 3.20 -4.9%

BTTS 52.1% 50.0% 2.00 +4.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 16.7% 6.00 +92.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 63.7% 1.57 -35.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.1%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.1%

#3 0–1✓ 10.7%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cagliari1.2

Inter1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CAGLIARI · PPG 1.38

INTER · PPG 1.96

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cagliari (H) 32.6%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +128.2%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +11.6%

Inter (A) 39.0%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -43.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cagliari face Inter in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cagliari a 33% chance, the draw 28% and Inter 39%, so Inter are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cagliari and 1.3 for Inter (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cagliari are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.96 for Inter. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +157.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Cagliari vs Inter Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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