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Lecce vs AS Roma Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 2 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 16:30

Lecce

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

0 – 4

FULL TIME

AS Roma

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-111.5%0-27.0%0-32.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.7%1-113.1%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.1%2-17.5%2-24.6%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.3%3-12.9%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.2% 12.7% 7.90 +170.2%

Draw 29.1% 25.0% 4.00 +9.8%

Away win 36.7% 69.4% 1.44 -47.1%

Over 2.5 44.5% 50.0% 2.00 -11.0%

Over 3.5 25.8% 28.2% 3.55 -5.1%

BTTS 49.9% 46.5% 2.15 +7.3%

Home O1.5 31.2% 18.2% 5.50 +71.6%

Away O1.5 36.8% 60.6% 1.65 -39.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.9%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.4%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lecce1.1

AS Roma1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LECCE · PPG 1.21

AS ROMA · PPG 1.58

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.08, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lecce (H) 34.2%

ODDS 7.90 · IMPLIED 12.7% EV +170.2%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +9.8%

AS Roma (A) 36.7%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -47.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lecce face AS Roma in Italy - Serie A on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lecce a 34% chance, the draw 29% and AS Roma 37%, so AS Roma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Lecce and 1.2 for AS Roma (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lecce are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.58 for AS Roma. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +112.4%. This match finished 0-4.

Lecce vs AS Roma Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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