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Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 2 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 18:45

Atalanta

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Bologna

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-19.7%0-25.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.2%1-112.9%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.6%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.6%3-13.8%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 53.2% 1.88 -19.4%

Draw 30.7% 28.6% 3.50 +7.4%

Away win 26.5% 25.3% 3.95 +2.8%

Over 2.5 44.5% 52.6% 1.90 -15.4%

Over 3.5 26.0% 30.8% 3.25 -9.3%

BTTS 48.8% 57.1% 1.75 -14.6%

Home O1.5 38.9% 52.4% 1.91 -25.7%

Away O1.5 32.5% 31.3% 3.20 +4.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.8%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 1–0✓ 12.2%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atalanta1.3

Bologna1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ATALANTA · PPG 1.88

BOLOGNA · PPG 1.69

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.27, combined xG 2.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atalanta (H) 42.9%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -19.4%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +7.4%

Bologna (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atalanta face Bologna in Italy - Serie A on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atalanta a 43% chance, the draw 31% and Bologna 27%, so Atalanta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Atalanta and 1.1 for Bologna (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atalanta are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.69 for Bologna. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +12.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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