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AS Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 18:45

AS Roma

PPG 1.96 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Fiorentina

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-16.7%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.1%1-111.4%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.6%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.2%3-15.4%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 60.6% 1.65 -12.1%

Draw 24.5% 26.7% 3.75 -4.9%

Away win 22.2% 20.0% 5.00 +6.6%

Over 2.5 50.9% 52.4% 1.91 -2.8%

Over 3.5 30.5% 29.4% 3.40 +3.7%

BTTS 52.7% 52.4% 1.91 +0.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 55.6% 1.80 -12.0%

Away O1.5 25.1% 26.7% 3.75 -3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 2–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AS Roma1.7

Fiorentina0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AS ROMA · PPG 1.96

FIORENTINA · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

AS Roma (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -12.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.9%

Fiorentina (A) 22.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

AS Roma face Fiorentina in Italy - Serie A on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AS Roma a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Fiorentina 22%, so AS Roma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for AS Roma and 0.9 for Fiorentina (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AS Roma are averaging 1.96 points per game versus 1.25 for Fiorentina. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 4-0.

AS Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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