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Torino vs AC Milan Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:45

Torino

PPG 1.48 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

AC Milan

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-110.9%0-27.9%0-33.9%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.5%1-112.4%1-29.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.8%2-17.0%2-25.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.8%3-12.7%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% 23.1% 4.33 +35.5%

Draw 25.9% 28.6% 3.50 -5.6%

Away win 42.9% 57.1% 1.75 -24.9%

Over 2.5 53.3% 52.4% 1.91 +1.8%

Over 3.5 30.9% 31.3% 3.20 -1.1%

BTTS 54.7% 57.1% 1.75 -4.3%

Home O1.5 30.6% 28.6% 3.50 +7.1%

Away O1.5 41.2% 54.6% 1.83 -24.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.7%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–2✓ 9.0%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torino1.1

AC Milan1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TORINO · PPG 1.48

AC MILAN · PPG 1.82

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Torino (H) 31.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +35.5%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.6%

AC Milan (A) 42.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -24.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torino face AC Milan in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torino a 31% chance, the draw 26% and AC Milan 43%, so AC Milan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Torino and 1.5 for AC Milan (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torino are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.82 for AC Milan. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +41.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Torino vs AC Milan Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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