Leagues / IRELAND / Premier Division
Premier Division
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
Upcoming Premier Division predictions
DateMatchPickProbOddsEV
4 SEPT19:00 Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne Over 2.5 54% 1.85 -0%// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 87 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
35.6%
1X2
31/87
51.7%
O/U 2.5
45/87
52.9%
BTTS
46/87
47.1%
Exact score
41/87
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
22
Settled
50.0%
Hit rate
11/22
1.81
Avg odds
-10.4%
ROI
-2.3u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=11 45.5% HIT · AVG 1.80 · -17.3% ROI
BTTS · N=8 62.5% HIT · AVG 1.79 · +9.8% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.90 · -8.0% ROI
HOME WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.85 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
3
Bets
67%
Hit
+13.3%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
12
Bets
50%
Hit
-7.3%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
6
Bets
50%
Hit
-13.3%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 15 PICKS · 10 HIT · 5 MISS
30 AUG Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers BTTS -10% 3–3 HIT28 AUG Galway United vs Shelbourne BTTS -12% 1–1 HIT28 AUG St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford HO1.5 0–2 MISS28 AUG Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers Home -27% 3–0 HIT28 AUG Drogheda United vs Dundalk BTTS -8% 2–3 HIT21 AUG Bohemians vs Derry City BTTS -3% 5–3 HIT21 AUG Dundalk vs Galway United Over 2.5 -6% 1–2 HIT21 AUG Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. BTTS -7% 0–2 MISS21 AUG Sligo Rovers vs Waterford BTTS -11% 0–0 MISS9 AUG Waterford vs Bohemians BTTS -16% 3–1 HIT9 AUG Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. BTTS -3% 1–2 HIT7 AUG Galway United vs Drogheda United Over 2.5 +14% 0–0 MISS7 AUG Derry City vs Sligo Rovers Home -20% 2–0 HIT7 AUG Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk Home -6% 3–2 HIT2 AUG Waterford vs Shelbourne BTTS -5% 1–0 MISS