Leagues / IRELAND / Premier Division
Premier Division
▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE
MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 65 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
38.5%
1X2
25/65
53.8%
O/U 2.5
35/65
52.3%
BTTS
34/65
47.7%
Exact score
31/65
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
55
Settled
63.6%
Hit rate
35/55
1.71
Avg odds
+6.0%
ROI
+3.3u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=31 61.3% HIT · AVG 1.74 · +5.8% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=13 61.5% HIT · AVG 1.79 · +8.5% ROI
HOME WIN · N=8 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.40 · +0.3% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.78 · +13.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
9
Bets
78%
Hit
+21.6%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
13
Bets
77%
Hit
+34.8%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
32
Bets
56%
Hit
-6.7%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
July 2026 // 5 PICKS · 4 HIT · 1 MISS
3 JUL Drogheda Utd vs Bohemians Over 2.5 -3% 0–2 MISS3 JUL Derry City vs Waterford Over 2.5 +2% 2–4 HIT3 JUL St. Patricks vs Galway Utd Home -21% 3–0 HIT3 JUL Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers Away -11% 1–2 HIT3 JUL Shelbourne vs Dundalk BTTS -5% 2–1 HITJune 2026 // 10 PICKS · 5 HIT · 5 MISS
27 JUN Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne BTTS -3% 2–2 HIT26 JUN Shamrock Rovers vs Galway Utd Home -24% 3–1 HIT26 JUN Dundalk vs Waterford Over 2.5 -5% 2–3 HIT26 JUN Derry City vs Drogheda Utd Over 2.5 +10% 2–0 MISS26 JUN Bohemians vs St. Patricks BTTS -9% 2–0 MISS22 JUN Shelbourne vs Bohemians BTTS +11% 0–3 MISS22 JUN Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City Home +1% 1–1 MISS19 JUN Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers BTTS -5% 0–2 MISS19 JUN Galway Utd vs Derry City BTTS -1% 2–1 HIT19 JUN Drogheda Utd vs Shelbourne BTTS -1% 2–2 HIT