Today / Ireland - Premier Division / St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford

St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 29 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

St Patrick's Athl.

PPG 2.14 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Waterford

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-13.2%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.4%1-17.7%1-22.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.2%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.9%3-17.4%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.4%4+-17.8%4+-22.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.2% 75.2% 1.33 -14.6%

Draw 19.6% 20.6% 4.85 -3.0%

Away win 16.1% 11.1% 9.00 +26.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 42.6% 2.35 -13.8%

BTTS 52.5% 56.5% 1.77 -7.1%

Home O1.5 65.8% 72.5% 1.38 -9.2%

Away O1.5 18.6% 23.1% 4.33 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.5%

H 64% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 3–0 9.9%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 1–0 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St Patrick's Athl.2.4

Waterford0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ST PATRICK'S ATHL. · PPG 2.14

WATERFORD · PPG 0.71

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.65 for Home, form 2.14 vs 0.71 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

St Patrick's Athl. (H) 64.2%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -14.6%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV -3.0%

Waterford (A) 16.1%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +26.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

St Patrick's Athl. face Waterford in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 64% chance, the draw 20% and Waterford 16%, so St Patrick's Athl. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.7 for Waterford (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.71 for Waterford. This match finished 0-2.

St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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