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Drogheda United vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 29 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 19:00

Drogheda United

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dundalk

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.1%0-25.7%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.3%1-111.7%1-28.3%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-18.5%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.9%3-14.1%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 32.3% 3.10 +20.9%

Draw 25.6% 29.0% 3.45 -7.0%

Away win 35.5% 45.9% 2.18 -22.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 32.3% 3.10 -2.4%

BTTS 55.0% 59.9% 1.67 -8.2%

Home O1.5 40.1% 38.2% 2.62 +5.1%

Away O1.5 40.9% 47.6% 2.10 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.0%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.3%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Drogheda United1.4

Dundalk1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DROGHEDA UNITED · PPG 1.07

DUNDALK · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Drogheda United (H) 39.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +20.9%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -7.0%

Dundalk (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Drogheda United face Dundalk in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Drogheda United a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Dundalk 36%, so Drogheda United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Drogheda United and 1.4 for Dundalk (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Drogheda United are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.14 for Dundalk. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 2-3.

Drogheda United vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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