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Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 16:00

Shelbourne

PPG 1.08 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

St Patrick's Athl.

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-111.0%0-27.3%0-33.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.8%1-112.8%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.7%2-17.5%2-24.9%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.2%3-12.9%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 31.3% 3.20 +18.1%

Draw 27.9% 30.3% 3.30 -4.8%

Away win 35.2% 45.5% 2.20 -22.6%

Over 2.5 50.3% 47.6% 2.10 +5.6%

Over 3.5 28.8% 25.6% 3.90 +7.4%

BTTS 53.1% 54.6% 1.83 -2.8%

Home O1.5 32.1% 33.3% 3.00 -3.7%

Away O1.5 42.4% 43.5% 2.30 -2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.1%

A 35% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 0–1 11.0%

#4 1–2✓ 8.4%

#5 1–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shelbourne1.2

St Patrick's Athl.1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SHELBOURNE · PPG 1.08

ST PATRICK'S ATHL. · PPG 1.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.15, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Shelbourne (H) 36.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +18.1%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.8%

St Patrick's Athl. (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shelbourne face St Patrick's Athl. in Ireland - Premier Division on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shelbourne a 37% chance, the draw 28% and St Patrick's Athl. 35%, so Shelbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Shelbourne and 1.3 for St Patrick's Athl. (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shelbourne are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.17 for St Patrick's Athl.. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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