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Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 28 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:45

Drogheda United

PPG 1.15 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

St Patrick's Athl.

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-113.0%0-28.7%0-33.9%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.8%2-16.4%2-24.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.6%3-12.1%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% 20.8% 4.80 +48.8%

Draw 27.0% 27.0% 3.70 -0.1%

Away win 42.0% 59.2% 1.69 -29.0%

Over 2.5 45.4% 52.4% 1.91 -13.3%

Over 3.5 27.5% 30.3% 3.30 -5.5%

BTTS 50.7% 54.6% 1.83 -7.2%

Home O1.5 30.6% 27.0% 3.70 +13.2%

Away O1.5 41.2% 55.6% 1.80 -25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob50.7%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 45% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1 13.0%

#3 0–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 0–2✓ 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Drogheda United1.0

St Patrick's Athl.1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DROGHEDA UNITED · PPG 1.15

ST PATRICK'S ATHL. · PPG 1.31

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.34, combined xG 2.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Drogheda United (H) 31.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +48.8%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.1%

St Patrick's Athl. (A) 42.0%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -29.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Drogheda United face St Patrick's Athl. in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Drogheda United a 31% chance, the draw 27% and St Patrick's Athl. 42%, so St Patrick's Athl. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Drogheda United and 1.3 for St Patrick's Athl. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Drogheda United are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.31 for St Patrick's Athl.. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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