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Waterford vs Shelbourne Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 14:00

Waterford

PPG 1.08 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shelbourne

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-17.2%0-25.8%0-33.1%0-4+1.8%1 1-06.7%1-110.8%1-28.7%1-34.7%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.0%2-18.1%2-26.5%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.5%3-14.0%3-23.2%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 34.2% 2.92 +18.0%

Draw 24.9% 28.6% 3.50 -7.7%

Away win 34.7% 44.4% 2.25 -21.9%

Over 2.5 61.2% 59.9% 1.67 +2.2%

Over 3.5 37.7% 37.0% 2.70 +1.8%

BTTS 62.1% 65.4% 1.53 -5.0%

Home O1.5 45.4% 43.5% 2.30 +4.4%

Away O1.5 48.0% 51.3% 1.95 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.1%

A 35% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Waterford1.5

Shelbourne1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

WATERFORD · PPG 1.08

SHELBOURNE · PPG 1.82

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Waterford (H) 40.4%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV +18.0%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.7%

Shelbourne (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Waterford face Shelbourne in Ireland - Premier Division on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Waterford a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Shelbourne 35%, so Waterford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Waterford and 1.6 for Shelbourne (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Waterford are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.82 for Shelbourne. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.3%.

Waterford vs Shelbourne Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions