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Dundalk vs Galway United Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 28 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:45

Dundalk

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Galway United

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.1%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.8%1-110.1%1-25.8%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.9%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.6%3-16.4%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.9%4+-22.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 57.1% 1.75 -9.3%

Draw 23.8% 25.6% 3.90 -4.3%

Away win 24.4% 24.4% 4.10 +0.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 41.7% 2.40 -12.2%

BTTS 54.7% 65.4% 1.53 -16.3%

Home O1.5 54.9% 61.7% 1.62 -11.1%

Away O1.5 35.6% 37.7% 2.65 -5.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 1–2✓ 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dundalk2.0

Galway United1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNDALK · PPG 1.62

GALWAY UNITED · PPG 0.85

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dundalk (H) 51.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -9.3%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.3%

Galway United (A) 24.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundalk face Galway United in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundalk a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Galway United 24%, so Dundalk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Dundalk and 1.1 for Galway United (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundalk are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.85 for Galway United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Dundalk vs Galway United Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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