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Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 28 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 19:00

Shamrock Rovers

PPG 2.46 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWD

UPCOMING

Shelbourne

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.0%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.0%1-110.8%1-24.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.6%3-15.9%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 54.1% 1.85 -1.6%

Draw 24.1% 29.4% 3.40 -10.8%

Away win 22.7% 26.3% 3.80 -8.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 52.6% 1.90 +2.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 32.1% 3.12 -1.1%

BTTS 53.2% 57.1% 1.75 -6.9%

Home O1.5 50.7% 51.5% 1.94 -1.6%

Away O1.5 25.9% 29.9% 3.34 -8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.2%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shamrock Rovers1.8

Shelbourne0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAMROCK ROVERS · PPG 2.46

SHELBOURNE · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shamrock Rovers (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -1.6%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.8%

Shelbourne (A) 22.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shamrock Rovers face Shelbourne in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shamrock Rovers a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Shelbourne 23%, so Shamrock Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Shamrock Rovers and 0.9 for Shelbourne (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shamrock Rovers are averaging 2.46 points per game versus 1.62 for Shelbourne. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +6.9%.

Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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