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Waterford vs Bohemians Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:00

Waterford

PPG 1.23 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bohemians

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-19.3%0-27.7%0-34.3%0-4+2.6%1 1-06.8%1-111.4%1-29.4%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.2%2-16.9%2-25.8%2-33.2%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.7%3-12.8%3-22.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% 27.4% 3.65 +14.2%

Draw 24.9% 26.7% 3.75 -4.0%

Away win 43.8% 53.2% 1.88 -17.7%

Over 2.5 53.5% 61.7% 1.62 -13.3%

Over 3.5 32.8% 39.2% 2.55 -16.4%

BTTS 54.6% 65.4% 1.53 -16.5%

Home O1.5 34.0% 39.2% 2.55 -13.3%

Away O1.5 48.2% 57.8% 1.73 -16.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.6%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 7.7%

#4 0–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Waterford1.2

Bohemians1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WATERFORD · PPG 1.23

BOHEMIANS · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Waterford (H) 31.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +14.2%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.0%

Bohemians (A) 43.8%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Waterford face Bohemians in Ireland - Premier Division on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Waterford a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Bohemians 44%, so Bohemians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Waterford and 1.7 for Bohemians (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Waterford are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 2.00 for Bohemians. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +10.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Waterford vs Bohemians Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions