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Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 27 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 19:00

Shamrock Rovers

PPG 2.42 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dundalk

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-15.3%0-22.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.7%1-110.3%1-24.5%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.9%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.2%3-16.3%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-14.7%4+-22.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 60.2% 1.66 -6.5%

Draw 22.7% 25.6% 3.90 -6.9%

Away win 21.0% 21.1% 4.75 -0.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.8% 1.73 -7.4%

Over 3.5 32.3% 35.7% 2.80 -9.6%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Away O1.5 23.4% 30.3% 3.30 -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 11.3%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shamrock Rovers1.9

Dundalk0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAMROCK ROVERS · PPG 2.42

DUNDALK · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shamrock Rovers (H) 56.3%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -6.5%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -6.9%

Dundalk (A) 21.0%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shamrock Rovers face Dundalk in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shamrock Rovers a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Dundalk 21%, so Shamrock Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Shamrock Rovers and 0.9 for Dundalk (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shamrock Rovers are averaging 2.42 points per game versus 1.23 for Dundalk.

Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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