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Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:00

Derry City

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLD

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Shamrock Rovers

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-111.6%0-27.0%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.9%1-113.2%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.2%2-17.5%2-24.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.3%3-12.8%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 38.5% 2.60 -6.4%

Draw 27.1% 29.9% 3.35 -5.5%

Away win 36.8% 38.5% 2.60 -4.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 51.3% 1.95 -1.5%

Over 3.5 29.0% 29.0% 3.45 +0.0%

BTTS 53.0% 58.8% 1.70 -9.9%

Home O1.5 31.1% 41.7% 2.40 -25.4%

Away O1.5 36.6% 41.7% 2.40 -12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.0%

A 37% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 10.9%

#3 0–1 11.6%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Derry City1.1

Shamrock Rovers1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DERRY CITY · PPG 1.64

SHAMROCK ROVERS · PPG 1.57

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.07, combined xG 2.34 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Derry City (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -6.4%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.5%

Shamrock Rovers (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Derry City face Shamrock Rovers in Ireland - Premier Division on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Derry City a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Shamrock Rovers 37%, so Shamrock Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Derry City and 1.2 for Shamrock Rovers (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Derry City are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.57 for Shamrock Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.0%. This match finished 3-3.

Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions