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Sligo Rovers vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 28 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 19:00

Sligo Rovers

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Waterford

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.2%0-25.1%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.8%1-111.2%1-28.0%1-33.8%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.8%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.2%3-14.6%3-23.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.5%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 34.0% 2.94 +14.9%

Draw 24.6% 28.6% 3.50 -8.3%

Away win 36.3% 44.2% 2.26 -18.0%

Over 2.5 56.0% 58.8% 1.70 -4.8%

Over 3.5 35.5% 35.7% 2.80 -0.6%

BTTS 57.1% 64.5% 1.55 -11.5%

Home O1.5 45.5% 42.6% 2.35 +6.9%

Away O1.5 41.2% 50.0% 2.00 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob57.1%

H 39% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0 7.8%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sligo Rovers1.6

Waterford1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SLIGO ROVERS · PPG 1.00

WATERFORD · PPG 0.69

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sligo Rovers (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV +14.9%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.3%

Waterford (A) 36.3%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sligo Rovers face Waterford in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sligo Rovers a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Waterford 36%, so Sligo Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sligo Rovers and 1.4 for Waterford (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.69 for Waterford. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +8.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Sligo Rovers vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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