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Derry City vs Sligo Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 27 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:45

Derry City

PPG 1.54 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sligo Rovers

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-16.2%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.4%1-110.8%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.4%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.3%3-15.5%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 70.4% 1.42 -20.3%

Draw 23.0% 22.5% 4.45 +1.4%

Away win 21.0% 14.1% 7.10 +29.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.8% 1.73 -7.4%

Over 3.5 32.3% 35.7% 2.80 -9.6%

BTTS 53.1% 54.1% 1.85 -1.8%

Home O1.5 49.2% 66.7% 1.50 -26.2%

Away O1.5 17.4% 22.2% 4.50 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.4%

#2 2–0 12.5%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Derry City1.7

Sligo Rovers0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DERRY CITY · PPG 1.54

SLIGO ROVERS · PPG 0.69

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Derry City (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -20.3%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +1.4%

Sligo Rovers (A) 21.0%

ODDS 7.10 · IMPLIED 14.1% EV +29.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Derry City face Sligo Rovers in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Derry City a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Sligo Rovers 21%, so Derry City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Derry City and 0.8 for Sligo Rovers (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Derry City are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 0.69 for Sligo Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.9%.

Derry City vs Sligo Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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