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Galway United vs Drogheda United Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 27 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:45

Galway United

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Drogheda United

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+12.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.0%0-23.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.7%1-19.9%1-26.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.9%3-16.3%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.8%4+-23.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 48.5% 2.06 +7.9%

Draw 22.5% 28.2% 3.55 -12.1%

Away win 25.1% 30.3% 3.30 -10.3%

Over 2.5 63.4% 56.5% 1.77 +12.2%

Over 3.5 39.5% 33.9% 2.95 +16.5%

BTTS 61.8% 61.7% 1.62 +0.1%

Home O1.5 55.4% 51.3% 1.95 +8.0%

Away O1.5 35.7% 38.2% 2.62 -6.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.8%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–2 6.3%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Galway United2.0

Drogheda United1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GALWAY UNITED · PPG 1.50

DROGHEDA UNITED · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Galway United (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV +7.9%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.1%

Drogheda United (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Galway United face Drogheda United in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Galway United a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Drogheda United 25%, so Galway United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Galway United and 1.3 for Drogheda United (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Galway United are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.92 for Drogheda United. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.9%.

Galway United vs Drogheda United Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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