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Bohemians vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 28 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:45

Bohemians

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

5 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Derry City

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-18.2%0-23.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.2%1-112.3%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.2%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.9%3-14.6%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 50.0% 2.00 -5.4%

Draw 25.7% 30.3% 3.30 -9.1%

Away win 27.0% 27.0% 3.70 -0.1%

Over 2.5 50.2% 47.6% 2.10 +5.4%

Over 3.5 29.8% 26.3% 3.80 +7.9%

BTTS 53.0% 54.6% 1.83 -3.0%

Home O1.5 40.0% 46.5% 2.15 -14.0%

Away O1.5 25.5% 30.3% 3.30 -9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.0%

H 47% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bohemians1.5

Derry City0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BOHEMIANS · PPG 1.38

DERRY CITY · PPG 0.77

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bohemians (H) 47.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -5.4%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -9.1%

Derry City (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bohemians face Derry City in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bohemians a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Derry City 27%, so Bohemians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bohemians and 0.9 for Derry City (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bohemians are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.77 for Derry City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 5-3.

Bohemians vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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