Today / Ireland - Premier Division / Galway United vs Shelbourne

Galway United vs Shelbourne Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 29 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

Galway United

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Shelbourne

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.9%0-25.2%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.9%1-111.8%1-27.8%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-18.8%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.3%3-14.4%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 39.2% 2.55 +13.2%

Draw 25.8% 28.6% 3.50 -5.8%

Away win 29.8% 39.2% 2.55 -14.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 33.9% 2.95 -7.1%

BTTS 55.0% 62.5% 1.60 -12.0%

Home O1.5 40.1% 44.4% 2.25 -9.8%

Away O1.5 40.9% 44.4% 2.25 -8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.0%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Galway United1.5

Shelbourne1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GALWAY UNITED · PPG 1.46

SHELBOURNE · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Galway United (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +13.2%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.8%

Shelbourne (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Galway United face Shelbourne in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Galway United a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Shelbourne 30%, so Galway United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Galway United and 1.3 for Shelbourne (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Galway United are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.67 for Shelbourne. This match finished 1-1.

Galway United vs Shelbourne Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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