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Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 29 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

Bohemians

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sligo Rovers

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 77.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-14.7%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.1%1-19.5%1-23.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.5%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.8%3-16.3%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-15.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% 77.5% 1.29 -27.0%

Draw 21.9% 19.2% 5.20 +8.3%

Away win 21.4% 10.0% 10.00 +68.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 64.5% 1.55 -17.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 42.6% 2.35 -25.7%

BTTS 52.7% 54.6% 1.83 -3.6%

Home O1.5 56.3% 74.1% 1.35 -24.0%

Away O1.5 18.2% 21.1% 4.75 -8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.7%

H 57% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bohemians2.0

Sligo Rovers0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BOHEMIANS · PPG 1.50

SLIGO ROVERS · PPG 0.64

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.28 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bohemians (H) 56.6%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -27.0%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +8.3%

Sligo Rovers (A) 21.4%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +68.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bohemians face Sligo Rovers in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bohemians a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Sligo Rovers 21%, so Bohemians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Bohemians and 0.7 for Sligo Rovers (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bohemians are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.64 for Sligo Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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