HNL
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 34 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
61.8%
1X2
21/34
70.6%
O/U 2.5
24/34
50.0%
BTTS
17/34
61.8%
Exact score
21/34
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
29
Settled
44.8%
Hit rate
13/29
1.66
Avg odds
-26.8%
ROI
-7.8u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=15 40.0% HIT · AVG 1.71 · -32.1% ROI
HOME WIN · N=7 28.6% HIT · AVG 1.47 · -66.3% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=5 80.0% HIT · AVG 1.75 · +40.6% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.63 · -17.5% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
5
Bets
80%
Hit
+23.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
2
Bets
50%
Hit
+50.0%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
20
Bets
40%
Hit
-39.6%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 11 PICKS · 5 HIT · 6 MISS
23 MAY Rijeka vs Gorica — NO PICK 2–0 —23 MAY Varazdin vs Istra BTTS -15% 2–0 MISS23 MAY Dinamo Zagreb vs Lok. Zagreb Home -15% 0–0 MISS22 MAY Osijek vs Slaven Belupo — NO PICK 2–0 —22 MAY Hajduk Split vs Vukovar Home -27% 6–3 HIT17 MAY Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb Away -10% 1–4 HIT17 MAY Istra vs Rijeka BTTS -7% 0–0 MISS16 MAY Gorica vs Osijek — NO PICK 2–0 —16 MAY Lok. Zagreb vs Hajduk Split BTTS -17% 1–1 HIT15 MAY Vukovar vs Varazdin BTTS -13% 0–2 MISS10 MAY Osijek vs Istra — NO PICK 0–1 —10 MAY Slaven Belupo vs Gorica BTTS -7% 1–0 MISS9 MAY Dinamo Zagreb vs Hajduk Split Over 2.5 -8% 2–0 MISS9 MAY Varazdin vs Lok. Zagreb BTTS -14% 1–1 HIT8 MAY Rijeka vs Vukovar Over 2.5 -13% 3–0 HIT