HNL
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
Upcoming HNL predictions
DateMatchPickProbOddsEV
4 SEPT18:00 NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961 Over 2.5 63% 1.77 +12%// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 53 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
60.4%
1X2
32/53
67.9%
O/U 2.5
36/53
49.1%
BTTS
26/53
52.8%
Exact score
28/53
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
11
Settled
45.5%
Hit rate
5/11
1.86
Avg odds
-7.0%
ROI
-0.8u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=4 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.67 · -100.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 2.36 · +50.0% ROI
BTTS · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.78 · -13.5% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.77 · +77.5% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.95 · +95.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-13.5%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
6
Bets
67%
Hit
+41.7%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
1
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 15 PICKS · 11 HIT · 4 MISS
31 AUG HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HO1.5 2–0 HIT31 AUG HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka BTTS +0% 0–0 MISS30 AUG NK Osijek vs NK Slaven Belupo Home -7% 3–0 HIT29 AUG Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb Over 2.5 -3% 2–2 HIT23 AUG HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961 BTTS -2% 3–2 HIT23 AUG HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek Over 2.5 +7% 4–0 HIT22 AUG NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica BTTS -15% 2–0 MISS22 AUG Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin Over 2.5 -6% 3–1 HIT16 AUG NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka BTTS -8% 2–0 MISS16 AUG HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split BTTS -10% 1–2 HIT15 AUG Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo Over 2.5 +4% 3–0 HIT15 AUG NK Osijek vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb BTTS -9% 1–0 MISS9 AUG NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin BTTS -9% 1–4 HIT9 AUG HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 Over 2.5 -1% 2–2 HIT8 AUG NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica HO1.5 3–1 HIT