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NK Osijek vs NK Slaven Belupo Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

NK Osijek

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

NK Slaven Belupo

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-15.4%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.3%1-110.3%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.9%3-16.3%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-14.7%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% 59.9% 1.67 -6.8%

Draw 22.5% 26.3% 3.80 -8.7%

Away win 21.7% 22.7% 4.40 -2.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 38.2% 2.62 -3.9%

BTTS 54.3% 59.9% 1.67 -9.3%

Home O1.5 56.3% 63.7% 1.57 -11.6%

Away O1.5 25.7% 29.4% 3.40 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.3%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NK Osijek1.9

NK Slaven Belupo0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NK OSIJEK · PPG 1.51

NK SLAVEN BELUPO · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

NK Osijek (H) 55.8%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -6.8%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.7%

NK Slaven Belupo (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

NK Osijek face NK Slaven Belupo in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NK Osijek a 56% chance, the draw 23% and NK Slaven Belupo 22%, so NK Osijek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for NK Osijek and 0.9 for NK Slaven Belupo (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NK Osijek are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 0.69 for NK Slaven Belupo. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 3-0.

NK Osijek vs NK Slaven Belupo Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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