Today / Croatia - HNL / HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka

HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 19:00

HNK Gorica

PPG 0.99 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

HNK Rijeka

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-110.0%0-26.5%0-32.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.7%1-112.6%1-28.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.1%2-18.0%2-25.2%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.6%3-13.4%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 19.6% 5.10 +84.1%

Draw 25.3% 27.4% 3.65 -4.6%

Away win 38.6% 62.1% 1.61 -37.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 52.6% 1.90 +2.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 30.8% 3.25 +2.7%

BTTS 54.9% 54.6% 1.83 +0.5%

Home O1.5 38.4% 25.3% 3.95 +51.7%

Away O1.5 40.7% 56.5% 1.77 -28.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.9%

A 39% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 0–1 10.0%

#4 2–1 8.0%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HNK Gorica1.3

HNK Rijeka1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HNK GORICA · PPG 0.99

HNK RIJEKA · PPG 1.07

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

HNK Gorica (H) 36.1%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +84.1%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -4.6%

HNK Rijeka (A) 38.6%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -37.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

HNK Gorica face HNK Rijeka in Croatia - HNL on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HNK Gorica a 36% chance, the draw 25% and HNK Rijeka 39%, so HNK Rijeka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for HNK Gorica and 1.3 for HNK Rijeka (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HNK Gorica are averaging 0.99 points per game versus 1.07 for HNK Rijeka. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +61.5%. This match finished 0-0.

HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Croatia - HNL Predictions