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NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 16:30

NK Varazdin

PPG 1.93 · HOME

UPCOMING

HNK Rijeka

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-17.4%0-23.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.4%1-111.8%1-26.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.5%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.9%3-15.1%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 29.4% 3.40 +65.2%

Draw 27.3% 32.8% 3.05 -10.0%

Away win 24.1% 46.5% 2.15 -28.9%

Over 2.5 49.9% 50.0% 2.00 -0.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.0% 3.45 -0.6%

BTTS 53.1% 57.8% 1.73 -8.1%

Home O1.5 47.2% 33.3% 3.00 +41.6%

Away O1.5 31.9% 46.5% 2.15 -31.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NK Varazdin1.6

HNK Rijeka1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NK VARAZDIN · PPG 1.93

HNK RIJEKA · PPG 1.29

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

NK Varazdin (H) 48.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +65.2%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -10.0%

HNK Rijeka (A) 24.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

NK Varazdin face HNK Rijeka in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NK Varazdin a 49% chance, the draw 27% and HNK Rijeka 24%, so NK Varazdin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for NK Varazdin and 1.0 for HNK Rijeka (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NK Varazdin are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.29 for HNK Rijeka. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +41.6%.

NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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