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HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

HNK Hajduk Split

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

NK Osijek

PPG 1.65 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-18.0%0-25.5%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.6%1-111.8%1-28.1%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.6%2-25.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.1%3-14.2%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 48.8% 2.05 -25.6%

Draw 25.0% 28.6% 3.50 -7.5%

Away win 38.7% 32.3% 3.10 +20.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 55.6% 1.80 +7.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 33.3% 3.00 +9.8%

BTTS 60.3% 58.8% 1.70 +2.5%

Home O1.5 40.0% 52.4% 1.91 -23.6%

Away O1.5 41.2% 33.3% 3.00 +23.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.3%

A 39% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 0–1 8.0%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HNK Hajduk Split1.5

NK Osijek1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HNK HAJDUK SPLIT · PPG 1.75

NK OSIJEK · PPG 1.65

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

HNK Hajduk Split (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -25.6%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.5%

NK Osijek (A) 38.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

HNK Hajduk Split face NK Osijek in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HNK Hajduk Split a 36% chance, the draw 25% and NK Osijek 39%, so NK Osijek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for HNK Hajduk Split and 1.4 for NK Osijek (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HNK Hajduk Split are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.65 for NK Osijek. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +23.6%. This match finished 4-0.

HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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