Today / Croatia - HNL / Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb

Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:30

Istra 1961

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Dinamo Zagreb

PPG 2.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWD ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-17.9%0-27.0%0-34.1%0-4+2.7%1 1-06.0%1-110.6%1-29.3%1-35.5%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.0%2-17.1%2-26.3%2-33.7%2-4+2.4%3 3-01.8%3-13.2%3-22.8%3-31.7%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% 17.9% 5.60 +70.2%

Draw 23.3% 24.4% 4.10 -2.7%

Away win 46.3% 66.7% 1.50 -30.6%

Over 2.5 62.0% 63.7% 1.57 -2.7%

Over 3.5 39.3% 41.7% 2.40 -5.7%

BTTS 60.8% 58.8% 1.70 +3.4%

Home O1.5 37.8% 26.7% 3.75 +41.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 69.4% 1.44 -31.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob60.8%

A 46% / xG 1.3-1.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 7.1%

#4 0–2 7.0%

#5 0–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Istra 19611.3

Dinamo Zagreb1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ISTRA 1961 · PPG 1.40

DINAMO ZAGREB · PPG 2.01

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Istra 1961 (H) 30.4%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +70.2%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.7%

Dinamo Zagreb (A) 46.3%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -30.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Istra 1961 face Dinamo Zagreb in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Istra 1961 a 30% chance, the draw 23% and Dinamo Zagreb 46%, so Dinamo Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Istra 1961 and 1.8 for Dinamo Zagreb (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Istra 1961 are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.01 for Dinamo Zagreb. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +56.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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