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Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 16:30

Istra 1961

PPG 1.13 · HOME

UPCOMING

NK Slaven Belupo

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.9%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.1%1-19.9%1-25.4%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.1%3-16.7%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.3%4+-22.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 50.8% 1.97 +4.0%

Draw 23.4% 31.3% 3.20 -15.1%

Away win 23.8% 27.4% 3.65 -7.9%

Over 2.5 57.3% 57.8% 1.73 -0.9%

Over 3.5 36.5% 36.4% 2.75 +0.4%

BTTS 54.5% 64.5% 1.55 -15.5%

Home O1.5 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Away O1.5 34.4% 37.0% 2.70 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Istra 19612.0

NK Slaven Belupo1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.3% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ISTRA 1961 · PPG 1.13

NK SLAVEN BELUPO · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Istra 1961 (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV +4.0%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.1%

NK Slaven Belupo (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Istra 1961 face NK Slaven Belupo in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Istra 1961 a 53% chance, the draw 23% and NK Slaven Belupo 24%, so Istra 1961 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Istra 1961 and 1.1 for NK Slaven Belupo (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Istra 1961 are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.80 for NK Slaven Belupo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.1%.

Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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