Today / Croatia - HNL / NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin

NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 16:30

NK Slaven Belupo

PPG 1.57 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

NK Varazdin

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-110.5%0-26.9%0-33.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.7%1-112.7%1-28.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.9%2-17.7%2-25.1%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.4%3-13.1%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 41.0% 2.44 -10.0%

Draw 27.9% 29.4% 3.40 -3.1%

Away win 35.2% 38.5% 2.60 -8.5%

Over 2.5 50.7% 54.1% 1.85 -6.2%

Over 3.5 29.6% 31.3% 3.20 -3.2%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 34.0% 43.5% 2.30 -21.8%

Away O1.5 41.0% 41.7% 2.40 -1.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

A 35% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 0–1 10.5%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NK Slaven Belupo1.2

NK Varazdin1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.7% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NK SLAVEN BELUPO · PPG 1.57

NK VARAZDIN · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

NK Slaven Belupo (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -10.0%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.1%

NK Varazdin (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

NK Slaven Belupo face NK Varazdin in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NK Slaven Belupo a 37% chance, the draw 28% and NK Varazdin 35%, so NK Slaven Belupo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for NK Slaven Belupo and 1.3 for NK Varazdin (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NK Slaven Belupo are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.29 for NK Varazdin. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 1-4.

NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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