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Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:00

Dinamo Zagreb

PPG 2.39 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWD ·

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

NK Varazdin

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.3%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.6%1-19.2%1-24.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.0%3-17.0%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-16.1%4+-22.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 75.8% 1.32 -26.2%

Draw 22.2% 21.5% 4.65 +1.9%

Away win 21.9% 11.6% 8.60 +53.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 41.7% 2.40 -12.2%

BTTS 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Home O1.5 59.6% 72.5% 1.38 -17.8%

Away O1.5 22.8% 22.2% 4.50 +1.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 56% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Zagreb2.1

NK Varazdin0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO ZAGREB · PPG 2.39

NK VARAZDIN · PPG 1.57

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Zagreb (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.32 · IMPLIED 75.8% EV -26.2%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +1.9%

NK Varazdin (A) 21.9%

ODDS 8.60 · IMPLIED 11.6% EV +53.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Zagreb face NK Varazdin in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Zagreb a 56% chance, the draw 22% and NK Varazdin 22%, so Dinamo Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.9 for NK Varazdin (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Zagreb are averaging 2.39 points per game versus 1.57 for NK Varazdin. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +46.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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