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HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961 Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:30

HNK Rijeka

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWD ·

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Istra 1961

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.2%0-24.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.7%1-111.7%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.5%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.7%3-15.1%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 71.4% 1.40 -34.5%

Draw 24.3% 23.8% 4.20 +1.2%

Away win 28.8% 15.4% 6.50 +52.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 59.9% 1.67 -10.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.2% 2.62 -17.2%

BTTS 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Home O1.5 47.4% 66.7% 1.50 -28.9%

Away O1.5 35.5% 22.2% 4.50 +59.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HNK Rijeka1.6

Istra 19611.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HNK RIJEKA · PPG 1.90

ISTRA 1961 · PPG 1.21

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

HNK Rijeka (H) 46.8%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -34.5%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.2%

Istra 1961 (A) 28.8%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +52.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

HNK Rijeka face Istra 1961 in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HNK Rijeka a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Istra 1961 29%, so HNK Rijeka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for HNK Rijeka and 1.1 for Istra 1961 (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HNK Rijeka are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.21 for Istra 1961. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +78.2%. This match finished 3-2.

HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961 Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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